What is COP – and how will it help?
For almost three decades, world governments have met every year to
forge a global response to the climate emergency. Under the 1992 United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, every country on earth
is treaty-bound to “avoid dangerous climate change”, and find ways to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally in an equitable way.
COP stands for conference of the parties under the UNFCCC, and the
annual meetings have swung between fractious and soporific, interspersed
with moments of high drama and the occasional triumph (the Paris agreement in 2015) and disaster (Copenhagen in 2009). This year is the 25th iteration. Delegates started arriving last night for the two-week summit.
Where is it happening?
This year’s COP has already needed a last-ditch rescue. Costa Rica
wanted to host the event but lacked the resources, so Latin America’s
richest per-capita economy – Chile – took control. Everything was set
for a December COP in Santiago, billed as “the blue COP” because at long
last issues about the oceans would take centre stage.
But rioting in the capital and a political crisis forced the COP to
be moved. The Spanish government – despite being in the throes of a
general election – stepped up and offered Madrid, where this year’s talks will now take place.
The abrupt change of venue has caused many headaches, not least for the young campaigner Greta Thunberg, who had to hitch a lift back across the Atlantic by boat.
There will be less opportunity for Latin Americans to showcase their
vital role in reducing emissions, and Brazil may escape some of the
attention on its recent moves to exploit the Amazon rainforest.
It
also means the conference will be scaled down, with room for fewer NGOs
and businesses. Activists and protesters are hurriedly gearing up to
make public pressure felt, and participants are hoping that the act of
rescue will focus minds and lead to a spirit of cooperation.
Who will be there?
World leaders will not be turning up, though appearances by VIPs and celebrities cannot be ruled out.
The negotiations, which run until 13 December, will be led by
environment ministers and civil servants, aided by UN officials. Nearly
every country is expected to send a voting representative at the level
of environment secretary or equivalent, and the big economies will have
extensive delegations.
What is special about the meetings?
The COPs, for all their flaws, are the only forum on the climate
crisis in which the opinions and concerns of the poorest country carry
equal weight to that of the biggest economies, such as the US and China. The agreement can only come by consensus, which can be frustrating and
means some countries – notably Saudi Arabia – can act as a drag on more
ambitious action, but gives COP decisions global authority.
Each of the 196 nations on earth, bar a few failed states, is a
signatory to the UNFCCC foundation treaty and no country has yet opted to withdraw from it. That includes the US, which is in the process of withdrawing from the Paris accord.
Who will be the disruptors?
So far, the US has played a low-key role in the UN climate process under Donald Trump, but that could change to more damaging obstruction.
“As in years past, the US plans to send an interagency delegation. The
US delegation will engage in negotiations to protect US interest and level the playing field for US businesses,” the state department said.
Other potential obstructors include big oil powers such as Saudi Arabia,
Russia and Venezuela, as well as Brazil and Bolivia. Key to progress at
COP is China, the world’s biggest emitter, and India, whose emissions are rapidly rising.
Isn’t China the new green leader?
China
has been working hard to cut emissions, not least from the coal-fired
power plants that have generated widespread air pollution. But new
research from Global Energy Monitor has found that the country has increased its coal-burning capacity by more than 40GW in the 18 months to June, and plans more.
What will be decided this year?
The main subject up for discussion is a provision in the Paris
agreement known as article 6, which allows for the use of a global
market in carbon to help countries cut emissions and to fund measures
that reduce emissions in developing countries.
Carbon
markets have been around since the 1997 Kyoto protocol. The broad idea
is that rich countries could meet their targets by buying carbon credits
that were awarded to projects reducing emissions in the developing
world. In this way, rich nations bought themselves time, and poorer
nations got cash to help them on the road to a green future. But the
mechanism had basic flaws – with too many easy credits devaluing the
system.
The financial crisis of 2008 led to the outright collapse of the carbon market. It has never fully recovered, and today projects to cut carbon in developing countries are more likely to rely on conventional fundraising or overseas aid.
Reviving the carbon markets through article 6 is seen as a worthy aim
by many involved in climate finance. Trading could also help raise
funds to prevent deforestation.
For some campaigners, however, the markets are a scam aimed at
allowing rich countries to get away with continuing to burn fossil fuels
while paying poor countries to clean up. “We do not have the luxury of
talking about carbon offsets, we need absolute emissions cuts now.
Offsetting is unacceptable in the face of the scale and pace of
emissions reductions required, and we will oppose the creation of a new
global carbon market,” says Juan Pablo Osornio of Greenpeace.
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