When companies fail to deliver, managers and investors are forced to change their strategies. The process is often difficult, but always essential. Non-governmental and campaigning organisations are not commercial businesses driven by the profit motive but they do have clear objectives. When they fail to meet their objectives, they too need to reassess why their strategies are not working and what to do instead. This is what the NGOs campaigning on climate issues should be doing now. The energy transition is stalling. The world is burning more coal than ever before. Oil and gas consumption is increasing. Last year, hydrocarbons accounted for more than 80 per cent of total energy consumption — the same percentage (of a bigger absolute number) as 10, 20 or 30 years ago. Investment in renewables such as wind and solar has flatlined and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. As a result we are on track, on the best available scientific evidence, for an increase in temperatures averaging not 1.5C or 2C but 3C or 4C by 2100.
There is already visible evidence of the impact of climate change, such as the melting of the Arctic ice, which is opening up northern trade routes including the Northwest Passage. For the organisations pushing for action to limit climate change these facts should trigger not despair but rather a fundamental strategic review of their approach. For more than 30 years, the focus of their campaigns has been on raising consciousness about the risks we face. In some ways they have succeeded. Climate and other environmental policies are now part of the mainstream political debate, at least in Europe and the US. Few political leaders now deny the science of climate change and almost every country is committed on paper to taking some sort of action.
As yet, however, we have seen no real change. Renewables are growing but are not yet making a material difference to the overall picture. The world uses more wind and solar power each year but together they still account for little more than 4 per cent of total energy consumption. The old energy economy is still thriving. Driven by frustration at this state of affairs, the climate lobby has raised the volume of their protests and become more aggressive. Their targets have shifted from governments to companies. Noise wins media attention, and perhaps helps to raise money, but the real world impact is minimal. It does not amount to a strategy.
Having raised public consciousness the campaigners need to start providing practical answers. They must begin from a realistic view of the market. Instead of focusing on producers and politicians, campaigners should recognise that in the modern economy, power lies with the consumer. Given new choices of technology, consumers have transformed one sector after another over the past two decades — think of telecoms, retail, entertainment or the news media. The strategic challenge for organisations such as Greenpeace is to escape from old paradigms and become instead the source of better choices and solutions. Consumers are not wedded to existing energy sources.
They want low-cost, low-carbon energy along with the equipment that allows them to use it. Technology is moving quickly and would do so even faster if stimulated by mass demand — as with mobile phones. Protest is a tactic not an answer. It has raised consciousness and climate change is now part of the common vocabulary across the world. What is missing is the link between the fears that have been raised and the answers. Instead of simply acting as critics, Greenpeace and the other serious NGOs should move into the marketplace and build partnerships that offer us all sustainable choices. There is no need for a hard boundary between campaigning and doing business.
Commerce is more likely to be effective than noise in delivering necessary change. The campaigners clearly don’t believe the existing energy companies can or will transform themselves, so why don’t they take up the challenge themselves? “Greenpeace Energy” has a ring to it. A new green business would be a hugely disruptive force in a market that is ripe for change.
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