How coronavirus stalled climate change momentum

Near the top of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, 3,400m above sea level, a gleaming observatory surrounded by dark lava rocks measures carbon dioxide levels every second of every day.

It was here, using this data, that chemist Charles Keeling first demonstrated that the impact of fossil fuel use on atmospheric CO2 levels was measurable. The result of his research, known as the “Keeling curve”, shows how concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been ticking up ever since records began in 1958.

Today scientists analysing the Mauna Loa data are looking for something else: a change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, due to the global economic slowdown caused by coronavirus.

“We have not had a sudden change in fossil fuel emissions ever before in the history of the curve,” says Ralph Keeling, a professor at the Scripps Institute who leads the atmospheric analysis programme founded by his father. If his team is able to detect a change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, he adds, it would be the first time that an economic crisis has ever showed up in the data.

For now the CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa are still rising, and are on track to reach a new global record in May, typically the peak month. But Prof Keeling says a 10 per cent drop in fossil fuel emissions over a period of one year — a scenario that is not impossible during the coronavirus shutdown — would show up in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and be measurable at Mauna Loa. All over the world, pollution levels are dropping fast. The lockdowns triggered by the pandemic, with about 2.6bn people living under restrictions, are starting to have an impact not only on the virus but also on the planet — even if the effect is only temporary and comes at a huge social and human cost. 

As airlines ground their fleets, car travel grinds to a halt and industries shut down, emissions from transportation and power have plummeted. In the US, emissions of carbon dioxide are forecast to drop 7.5 per cent this year, according to a recent government estimate. In the EU, daily emissions have fallen 58 per cent compared to pre-crisis levels, according to the French consultancy Sia Partners. Global levels of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant linked to cars, have hit a record low, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Less coal burning in China in February alone has already avoided the equivalent of the annual emissions of a small European country. And the air quality in major cities from New Delhi to Beijing and Los Angeles is cleaner than at any time in recent memory.

“It is a big, natural experiment that you could never reproduce on this scale,” says James Lee, a professor of atmospheric chemistry at the University of York. “We will be able to get a much better handle on where the pollution is coming from in normal circumstances, because things like power generation will continue, but road traffic is shutting down.” Yet despite the potential short-term dip in emissions, there is a risk that the pandemic — which is likely to dominate debate for months or even years to come — will overshadow environmental concerns. Climate talks have already been delayed and new policy initiatives postponed. 

The convention centre that was set to host the UN climate talks in Glasgow in November has been converted into a hospital for coronavirus patients. Governments and world leaders have attention for only one crisis right now. “It’s going to put a pause on anything climate-related,” says Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo. “In the policy discussions for the next 6-12 months, climate is probably not going to be mentioned, it is going to be about coronavirus and economic recovery.”